![]() ![]() The total number of unemployment claims is about the same as the number of the jobs that were created in the past period following the end of the 2008-09 recession. We’ve also seen record-breaking weekly unemployment claims throughout the end of March and into April. Sure, we may not have the green light to start pumping the market higher, and sure, we might see that market fall again - but the economy is already bad, we all know that. The 200-day moving average still sits just below 298 for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF ( SPY) and has yet to close above that level, leading some to think that a double bottom is in play, like Jeffrey Gundlach. ![]() The S&P 500 fell 34% by March 23, and has rebounded quite rapidly off that low. Investors are still questioning whether the May 23 “bottom” is actually the true bottom. All we can say is that this sell-off has been almost at the same speed as the beginning of the Great Depression, with markets falling 22.5% in a little over a month. Each market trend has had a different underlying cause, so no direct comparisons can be made about recovery, future sell-offs, peaks, or bottoms. The outbreak’s effects on the markets have been some of the worst we’ve seen, with the markets falling at a similar rate to that of the opening stage of the Great Depression. The Fed has acted quickly to dump trillions into the economy - questions about whether it will be enough or was it handed out too soon still linger. ![]() Volatility in the market remains high, as well as expectations of future directions changing day by day, as the market climbed off of its low on March 23.Ī lot of the concern resides with the shape of the market recovery - whether it will be a V, a W, an L, a U, whatever you may call it, we have yet to see. Currently, we’re seeing a lot of discussion about the daily ups and downs, and whether the market will continue to go up or will go down and retest lows. Markets can go three ways - up, down, or sideways. ![]()
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